Humiliating blow for US: "Trump stop now with Iran" – Heavy defeat in 6 months, terror over $220bn cost and depleted arsenals

Six months after the start of the war with Iran, the toll for the US is heavy and the initial objectives remain largely unfulfilled. Despite the deaths of 18 American soldiers and more than 800 injured, despite tens of billions of dollars in military spending and depleted stocks of critical ammunition. Washington entered the war promising to neutralize Iran's nuclear program, dismantle its missile industry, crush its navy, and contain its regional allies.

Analysts from the Stimson Center argue that six months on, minimal progress has been made toward these goals, while the military mission has effectively narrowed to a much tighter objective: restoring navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. This represents a total failure. And as the war continues, the bill keeps growing: on the battlefield, in the US economy, and across a global chain of consequences reaching from energy prices to fertilizers, food, and the security of allies in Europe and Asia. Experts are categorical: the US has achieved nothing and Trump must stop the war now. Because if he continues, all he will manage to do is increase the cost for the US, the American public, and the rest of the planet. If nothing else, this is an admission of crushing defeat.

A humiliating distinction

As analyst Michael Cohen from the Stimson Center points out, initial US war objectives focused on ending Iran's nuclear program, destroying its missile industry, eliminating its navy, and ending Iranian support for proxy terrorist groups in the Middle East. Today, these goals have been set aside, as US military operations are now focused almost exclusively on reopening the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic — an objective that became necessary only because of the initial decision to go to war. At the same time, the cost of the conflict continues to rise, and the secondary and tertiary consequences of the war decision are escalating as well. Three months ago — Cohen notes — we described the war as a strategic disaster that had done little to advance US national security interests while imposing hundreds of billions of dollars in direct and indirect costs on the US. Three months later, the US war with Iran continues to hold this humiliating distinction.

Key takeaways

• The death toll of the war stands between 8,000 and 10,000, with nearly 50,000 injured, the vast majority of whom are civilians in Iran, Lebanon, and Israel.

• Eighteen US military personnel have been killed and more than 820 injured.

• One-third of all US casualties occurred after the April ceasefire.

• The Pentagon estimates that the war has cost the Department of Defense $40 billion.

• The US has significantly depleted its ammunition stockpiles.

• By August, the US military had used 80% of its THAAD stockpile — anti-ballistic missile interceptors — and roughly half of its Patriot interceptors.

• The US military has used "nearly all" of its Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), long-range weapons the US is expected to rely on in any conflict with China.

• Replenishing US stockpiles could take years.
  

• Reduced stockpiles already have significant consequences in the Indo-Pacific and Europe, as key US allies report weapon shipment delays and express fears that Washington may be unable to fulfill its allied and treaty defense obligations in the event of a conflict.

• The total cost of the war — direct and indirect — is estimated at $220 billion and has cost the average US household approximately $1,650.

• The largest share of consumer costs stems from the sharp rise in gasoline prices. On September 15, the average price of a gallon of gasoline was $4.32 — a 45% increase since the start of the war.

• The increase in gasoline prices, combined with a 70% surge in diesel fuel, has cost Americans over $106 billion and the average American household more than $816.

• Inflation has risen by a full percentage point since the start of the war.

• Mortgage interest rates have increased by more than one percentage point.

• Airfare prices have climbed 27% compared to a year ago.

The noise before defeat

At the start of the war with Iran, Trump outlined five core military and political goals:
• "Destroy Iran's missiles and level its missile industry"
• "Eliminate Iran's navy."
• "Ensure that Iran's proxy terrorist organizations can no longer destabilize the region or the world and attack our forces"
• Prevent Iran from using "IEDs or bombs to severely injure and kill thousands of people, including many Americans."
• "Ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon" Trump also hinted, more indirectly, at another possible outcome of the war: regime change.
The US failed to decisively achieve any of these goals. With the resumption of hostilities in June, the US largely abandoned these initial objectives in favor of a single, narrower purpose: ending Iran's ability to disrupt navigation in Hormuz.

The shift

Since July 8, US strikes have focused on Iranian air defenses, command and control networks, coastal radar and other surveillance capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, underground storage facilities, and naval assets, including naval bases and small craft. Previously, according to a Pentagon Inspector General report to Congress in September, US military operations focused on Iranian ballistic missile garrisons, Iranian air defense facilities, storage sites for Iranian cruise missiles and unmanned aerial systems (UAS), command and control centers, naval and mine-laying assets, as well as Iran's defense industrial base. Indeed, a glance at the map of targets hit by American strikes is enough to illustrate the change.

US attacks in the first wave of hostilities were geographically dispersed and oriented toward achieving the initial war objectives. The second wave has focused overwhelmingly on Iran's military assets along the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, with the resumption of hostilities on July 14, the US Navy reimposed a naval blockade on all maritime traffic entering or exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas. As of the publication of this report, the blockade remains in effect. Although US officials continue to publicly claim that the primary goal of the war is to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, there is little indication that recent US strikes have targeted Iranian nuclear infrastructure. According to Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear expert at Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation, "none" of the strikes in the second US wave focused on Iran's nuclear program. Strikes on Iran's missile production facilities were similarly limited. Experts argue that Iran "likely possesses hundreds, if not thousands, of missiles" that can be used to project military power throughout the region.

Significant damage to Iranian naval assets

Significant damage has also been inflicted on Iranian naval assets, without, however, preventing the disruption of navigation via land-based missiles and drones. Since July 8, Iran has hit at least 15 oil tankers. On September 2, only four vessels transited Hormuz, compared to roughly 138 per day prior to the war. Since July 14, average crude oil flow has been 4.9 million barrels per day, well below the pre-conflict level of approximately 20 million. Thus, destroying part of the Iranian navy has not deprived Tehran of the ability to cause severe disruption to one of the world's most critical maritime routes. American operations are now focused on reopening a route that was closed after the war began, without control over navigation having been regained to date.

Casualty figures

The total death toll is estimated between 8,000 and 10,000. In the US, 18 military personnel have been killed, four after the collapse of the ceasefire, and 820 have been injured. In Iran, the government reported around 3,500 dead in mid-April, while other estimates put the number up to 6,000. The Ministry of Health records more than 26,500 injured. Meanwhile, more than 6,500 Iranians have been arrested since the start of the war as part of a broader internal crackdown, and an unknown number have been executed.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah attacks against Israel led to an Israeli military response and the capture of territory in the south. The Lebanese Ministry of Health reports over 3,900 dead, nearly 12,000 injured, and more than one million displaced, without distinguishing between combatants and civilians. Israeli officials estimate that more than 2,500 Hezbollah fighters have been killed. In Israel, 12 members of the IDF have been killed and 78 injured. Iranian attacks also caused 30 civilian deaths and more than 7,800 injuries. In Iraq, an estimated 146 fighters have been killed and over 500 injured, without confirmation. Dozens more casualties have been recorded in Oman, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.

Direct and indirect military costs

On July 21, Pete Hegseth estimated the cost of the war before Congress at $37.5 billion, about $12 billion higher than the April estimate. The Congressional Budget Office placed the cost at $38.1 billion as of August 1, 2026, while the relevant Pentagon financial office calculated it at $33.4 billion as of June 29, of which $22.3 billion pertained to ammunition. These calculations do not fully include the reconstruction of damaged US military bases in the Middle East. One estimate points to 228 buildings or pieces of equipment damaged, with potential repair costs in the tens of billions of dollars. The Pentagon Inspector General reports damage to hundreds of buildings and facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, and Jordan. Estimates also appear not to include 42 aircraft or drones lost or damaged.

The rising cost has created a budget deficit at the Pentagon. Exercises were canceled, funds were pulled from equipment, facilities, and maintenance accounts, and Congress was asked to transfer $4.3 billion from training and arms purchases. The Navy transferred funds from payroll and other sources and delayed non-urgent maintenance work. The State Department has also incurred $113 million in expenses linked to Operation Epic Fury, while damage to embassies, consulates, and other diplomatic facilities is estimated at $184 million.

Ammunition replacement could take years and cost billions

The impact on US operational readiness could be just as significant as the financial cost. CSIS analysis estimates that the US has consumed between one-third and one-half of its stocks of certain critical munitions. By August, 80% of THAAD and roughly half of Patriot stockpiles had been used. On August 4, Reuters reported that the US military had used "nearly all" ATACMS and PrSM. Replenishing stockpiles could take years. Tomahawks are not expected to return to pre-war levels before late 2030 or early 2031, while Patriot and THAAD interceptors may require at least three years.

The war with Iran has left America and its allies more vulnerable

High ammunition consumption limits the ability of the US to respond to other potential crises and affects allied deterrence. In late August, the Washington Post reported that several US military leaders had warned Pete Hegseth that extending large-scale operations against Iran is unsustainable and could weaken the ability to address threats elsewhere, even within US territory. American generals, as well as the Chief of Naval Operations, reportedly opposed extending certain deployments in the Middle East. CSIS estimates that the US possesses sufficient ammunition for plausible scenarios in the war with Iran, but reduced stockpiles create a window of vulnerability in the Western Pacific, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, as multi-year delays in weapon deliveries are being considered. Nearly $30 billion in sales to Taiwan remain unfulfilled, including almost $900 million worth of Patriots, while deliveries of 400 Tomahawks to Japan could be delayed by up to two years. NATO allies also express concern over interceptor missile shortages. Thus, a war in a region that the 2025 National Security Strategy considered a lower priority is consuming systems Washington might need in more critical theaters of operation.

Cost to the US economy

Direct military costs represent only a portion of the burden. Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics estimates the overall cost at over $220 billion, or roughly $1,650 per average household. Gasoline rose from around $3 per gallon before the war to $4.32 on September 15. Brown University calculates that higher fuel costs have cost more than $107 billion, approximately $822 per household. Diesel fuel surged from $3.76 to an all-time high of $6.31 in mid-September. Airfares are nearly 27% more expensive than in 2025, while jet fuel rose from $90 to around $150 per barrel. The disruption to global oil supplies since February is, according to the analysis, more than double that of the 1973 oil crisis and continues to affect 5 to 7 million barrels per day. Inflation reached 4% in early June and eased to 3.4% in mid-September, compared to 2.4% in February. The increase limits the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates and weighs on growth. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 7.22%, more than a percentage point above pre-war levels.

Political impact of the war

The majority of Americans have opposed the war from the start, with support remaining below 40% since mid-March. The analysis argues that this opposition likely contributed to Trump's low approval ratings. From one perspective, public dissatisfaction limits the president's strategic options, increases pressure to end the conflict, and may encourage Iran to adopt a harder stance in negotiations.

Impact on the global economy

Economic damage is not confined to the US. The World Bank projects global economic growth at 2.5% for 2026, the lowest rate since the pandemic. For Gulf states, it forecasts 1.3%, down from 4.5% in 2025, due to disruptions in trade, investment, and major projects. The ECB postponed plans for interest rate cuts and revised growth forecasts downward. The UK is expected to see its growth forecast fall from 1.2% to 0.7%, while inflation is projected to reach 4%. Fuel price hikes are only part of the problem. Disruptions in the global supply chain for fertilizers and key nutrients such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur are creating additional pressure.

Impact on global agriculture

Approximately 30% of international fertilizer supply passes through the Persian Gulf. From the same maritime route passes about 50% of globally traded sulfur and over 30% of urea exports. The closure of Hormuz has led to shortages and rising agricultural costs. Fertilizer prices have increased by roughly 35% year-on-year. Anhydrous ammonia is 29% more expensive than in February, while urea rose from $415 per metric ton in January to $770.5 in July, nearly 90%. An American Farm Bureau Federation survey in mid-April showed that nearly 70% of American farmers reported being unable to afford fertilizer for spring planting. The Trump administration requested over $11 billion in additional congressional support, which has not yet been approved. The request comes on top of direct payments of $44 billion to farmers in 2026. If the extra $11 billion is approved, government payments will account for approximately 33% of total farm income, the highest proportion since 2001.

War consequences for global farming

To date, global food prices have not surged dramatically. However, the World Bank reports heightened pressures in Latin America and South Asia, smaller pressures in Europe and Central Asia, and uneven impacts in Africa. The full impact of fertilizer price hikes may become evident in 2027. If prices remain high, farmers may shift to crops with lower fertilization needs, but initial costs will remain elevated and could be passed on to consumers. The World Food Programme warns that poorer nations face the highest risk.

Conclusion

Six months after the start of the war, the core thesis of the analysis remains unchanged. The US has not eliminated Iran's nuclear program, has not destroyed its missile capability and infrastructure, and has not ended support for regional proxy organizations. The Iranian regime has consolidated power under new leadership and does not appear to face immediate risk of collapse. The navy has sustained damage, but Tehran continues to disrupt navigation in Hormuz. The immediate purpose of the war has narrowed to reopening a maritime route, the closure of which is partly linked to the conflict itself. Set against these limited results are mounting costs: thousands dead, including 18 American service members, tens of thousands wounded, tens of billions of dollars in expenditure, and years needed to restore bases and stockpiles.

American households are paying more for fuel and borrowing, while international disruptions in energy and agricultural inputs increase the risk of food insecurity. According to the authors, even if the US had achieved all its initial objectives, it would be difficult to demonstrate that national security benefits outweigh the direct and indirect costs. The damage of the past six months cannot be undone, but it can be stopped from growing. Further strikes are considered unlikely to yield the sweeping victory originally promised by the administration. Priority, according to the analysis, should be given to ending hostilities through negotiations, reopening Hormuz, and breaking the cycle of retaliation. Such an outcome would fall short of initial ambitions, but it would be far preferable to continuing a conflict whose costs keep escalating while prospects for success diminish.

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